Spring Creek, Nevada 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

032
FXUS65 KLKN 031105
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
305 AM PST Mon Feb 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Brief break in precipitaton today for northern Nevada
with low probabilities of precipitaton relegated to Humboldt
County and surrounding areas. Though conditions will be windy
across the forecast area under strong southwest winds. Unsettled
weather continues thru the week with another brief break in
precipitation Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday night

Robust cut off low resides along the B.C. coast this morning as a
shortwave progresses east from the central Pacific, moving along
the southern periphery of the cut off. This synoptic setup will
turn flow more southwesterly today. Forecast region will be mostly
dry with a low probability, around 10%, of light valley rain and
high mountain snow across northwest Humboldt County. Probability
of precipitation increases to 30% to 40% for Humboldt County and
northwest Elko County by the late afternoon/evening as showers
move back in from the northwest along a weak boundary associated
with the progression of the shortwave. However, main concern today
will again be strong southwesterly winds with gusts 30 to 40 mph,
and as high as 50 mph or more for the wind prone areas. This has
prompted a wind advisory for much of the forecast area beginning
at 1000AM PST this morning and ending at 1000PM PST this evening.
Patchy blowing dust will be possible throughout central Nevada
where little to no recent precipitation has been observed and dust
moving northeast from the Carson sink may again reach locations
between Carlin and Winnemucca this afternoon. Temperatures creep a
few degrees warmer today under continued warm southwesterly flow
with daytime highs mostly in the low 50s to low 60s, which is 15
to 20 degrees warmer than normal. Overnight lows reside in the
30s.

Robust cut off low along the B.C. coast begins to meander south
with latest numerical solutions positioning the low offshore of
Washington State by sunrise Wednesday. This will begin to move a
modest cold front into the forecast area Tuesday afternoon. After
another brief break in precipitation that is expected Tuesday
morning, precipitation associated with the cold front looks to
begin spreading from northwest to southeast across the forecast
area. Snow levels remain high, between 7000 feet and 7500 feet.
Front continues to progress thru the forecast area Wednesday while
also weakening with the greatest precipitation accumulations to
be focused within the northwest quadrant of the forecast area.
South-southwest winds remain strong Tuesday with gusts 30 to 40
mph across central Nevada, 20 to 30 mph across northern Nevada.
Strong 130kt to 140kt jet also moves into central California and
Nevada as the pattern evolves on Tuesday. This will keep winds
elevated thru Tuesday night with gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range.
Daytime high temperatures will be in the upper 40s to upper 50s
with overnight lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through next Monday

Next shortwave trough will be actively moving across Nevada
Wednesday, pushing through a Pacific cool front. Rain and snow
showers will continue through early Thursday morning. As has been
the theme this Winter, temperatures dont favor snow accumulations
below 6000 feet, as the combination of SW flow, warm lower level
temperatures and weakening dynamic lift will conspire to keep
significant accumulations for the mountain ranges. As for the
mountain they could expect another 6-16 of snow with the ranges
of Humboldt and Elko County receiving the lions share. Central
Nevada ranges will see 2 to 8, with the Snake rage being the big
winner. Moving down to between 5000 feet to 6500 feet, which
cover most roadway summits and passes, a mix of rain and snow will
add up to about 0.25 to 0.50 of water, included in that total
up to 2 to 3 of snow. Finally for elevations below 5000 feet,
which includes most valley floors, mostly rain will fall, although
a transition to snow is possible during the overnight Thursday
into Friday, amounts of 0.05 to 0.40 of water will be possible,
with lower amounts across central Nevada and the higher end of the
range favored across the I-80 corridor. After a brief break
Thursday afternoon, another trough following on the heels of the
first dig south into Nevada for Friday morning. This system, which
earlier had the potential of being a more widespread event.
Models have now trended away from that possibility favoring a
system track that is more like the previous storms, meaning once
again NE Nevada will see W to SW flow aloft with weak warm air
advection. This translates to mountain snow and valley rainfall
again with snow levels hovering around 6000 feet. A key difference
is that models do show a transition to all snow on the back side
of this shortwave, but the best moisture and lift will already be
on their way out of the area by the time cold air filters in.
Amounts so far look to be slightly lower than Wednesdays system
with the potential of up to 0.30 of water across northern Nevada,
with up to 0.15 for central Nevada, with up to another 8 to 14
of snow for the mountain ranges. Temperatures will be on the
downward slide for the week as highs will start in the upper 40s
to upper 50s Wednesday, falling to the upper 20s to low 50s Friday
through Monday. Lows will see a similar trend starting in the low
30s to low 40s dropping to the mid teens to mid 20s for Saturday
through Monday.. Winds will be elevated out of the W to SW at 10
to 25 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH possible Tuesday through
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...Dry with VFR conditions at all terminals today. Winds
will increase later this morning and remain breezy this afternoon
and evening. Most TAF sites can expect southwesterly winds with
gusts of 20-30 knots today. KEKO is expected to be the outlier,
with lighter winds closer to 10 knots. By around 06Z this evening
light shower activity will approach KWMC KBAM and KEKO from the
north, resulting in a 15% chance of rain at each site.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM PST this evening
Humboldt...Northeastern Nye...Northern Lander and Northern
Eureka...Northwestern Nye...Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt
Range in Elko...South Central Elko...Southern Lander and
Southern Eureka...White Pine.

&&

$$

92/98/96